ISLAMABAD: The global cotton market is experiencing notable fluctuations, driven primarily by weak US export figures and an active monsoon system in South Asia.
While countries like Pakistan and India anticipate improved local crop conditions due to early and strong monsoon rains, U.S. cotton is facing pressure from a significant drop in international sales.
Sharp Decline in US Cotton Exports & Changing Buyer Preferences
Last week, U.S. cotton export sales plummeted by 67%, with Pakistan emerging as the second-largest buyer at 9,200 bales.
This decline signals weakening demand from major importers and may result in a short-term price dip of 0.5% to 1%.
In response, buyers may increasingly turn to Brazilian and Australian cotton, driven by concerns over U.S. supply reliability and pricing.
Monsoon Progress Accelerates Cotton Sowing in South Asia
India’s monsoon arrived a full week ahead of schedule, accelerating the sowing of kharif crops including cotton.
Rainfall in June has been recorded at 9% above average, and forecasts suggest 2025 may be the second consecutive year of above-normal rainfall.
Similar patterns in Pakistan are expected to improve local cotton production and reduce dependency on imports.
Market Outlook and Trade Advice
The combination of U.S. supply weakness and favorable monsoon trends in South Asia could temporarily ease global cotton prices.
Experts recommend that buyers consider waiting for further price adjustments, while sellers should exercise caution until the next USDA supply report is released.
Mid-term trends will depend heavily on weather developments and official production updates from key cotton-growing regions.
