ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has forecast a prolonged and intensified monsoon season in the India-Pakistan border regions, starting from late June and continuing through October.
According to the FAO’s recent report, a strong pre-monsoon system will likely emerge in late June, followed by above-normal rainfall in key areas along the Indo-Pakistan border.
The monsoon is expected to persist into early July with near-normal rainfall patterns dominating the remainder of the month.
From July to September, unusually high rainfall is anticipated in the desert areas of both eastern Pakistan and India, which could have significant ecological and agricultural implications.
The monsoon is forecast to remain active into October before easing off in November, which is expected to be dry.
Rainfall is likely to return in December with the onset of winter precipitation.
Locust Breeding Conditions May Emerge
The FAO warns that the early and abundant monsoon rains may create conditions conducive to the small-scale breeding of desert locusts.
This activity is expected in eastern Pakistan and Rajasthan, India, particularly between July and September.
However, locust breeding is projected to decline once the monsoon retreats in November, reducing the threat to agriculture during the winter season.
PMD Projects Mixed Rainfall Outlook Across Regions
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has also forecast normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall from July to September.
While the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase, it is expected to turn negative during this period.
Meanwhile, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is predicted to stay neutral.
Most of the rainfall is expected in northeastern Punjab and Kashmir.
Regions such as northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience normal to slightly below-normal rainfall.
Above-normal rainfall is likely in northern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and parts of Balochistan.
These trends could support agriculture in some areas while raising concerns about potential flooding in others.Monsoon, Rainfall, Forecast
